Population and population change

Population[1]

The population of England and Wales in 2021 was 59,597,300, an increase of more than 3.5 million people since 2011. This is a rise of 6.3% since 2011 and a 24.3% rise in 40 years since 1981.

For England and Wales, by 2026 older people will account for almost half (48%) of the number of new households, resulting in 2.4 million more ‘older’ households than there are today. By 2041, the composition of the older age group will have changed dramatically. There will be a higher proportion of the older age groups, including the over 85s; more older people from black and minority ethnic groups, and double the number of older disabled people. One in 5 children born today can expect to live to 100 years old. The rise in the older people population and particularly those in the ‘older old’ age groups presents a challenge for those who provide adult social care services and the wider community.

The population of Somerset was 571,600, an increase of around 41,600 people since 2011.  This is a rise of 7.8% since 2011 and a 36.9% rise in 40 years since 1981.The population of England & Wales was 59,597,300, an increase of more than 3.5million people since 2011.  This is a rise of 6.3% since 2011 and a 24.3% rise in 40 years since 1981.

5-year age bands

The population pyramid below shows that for both male and female sexes the largest age groups are among the older age bands.

The age bands with the highest population are 50-54 and 55-59.  There were 84,700 people in their 50s accounting for nearly 15% of the total population.

We traditionally see a thinning of the ‘pyramid’ in the late teens/early 20s due to people either leaving the county to attend University or to work.

We then tend to see a rise in the population aged 40+ however in this census the rebound appears to be faster with the number of people in the 25-29 and 30-34 age bands rising and more similar to those in the 40s.

Population change

• Most 5-year age bands saw an increase in population between 2011 and 2021.
• The largest increase was in the 70-74 age band with over 13,000 more people than in 2011.
• Only one age band over 50 saw a reduction.
• The largest decreases are in the 40-44 and 45-49 age bands, however there is a similarly sized increase in the 25-29 and 30-34 age bands.
• Just over 30,000 more people aged 65+ than in 2011.
• Three quarters of the population growth between 2011 and 2021 was in the 65+ age range.

Over the next 25 years while the overall population will rise by 15%, we expect those over the age of 75 to double, resulting in a further significant rise in demand for health and care services.

This demonstrates the ageing population for Somerset and the potential increased demand for health and care services with a decreasing working age population.

While an ageing population is presenting challenges globally, there are a number of local factors that are likely to have a disproportional impact in Somerset.

[1] For more info, visit: Census 2021 – Somerset Intelligence – The home of information and insight on and for Somerset – Run by a partnership of public sector organisations