Population and population change

Population in England (2021 Census)

The population of England and Wales in 2021 was 59,597,300, an increase of 6.24% on the 2011 Census (56,097,300).

Population in Somerset (2021 Census)

Somerset’s population at the time of the 2021 Census was 571,600, an increase of 7.8% on the 2011 Census (529,972).

Somerset’s Ageing Population

Somerset’s population is ageing and it is forecast to continue to age into the future. Numerous factors can influence an ageing population, for example: young people leave the county to access higher education or employment opportunities, and internal migrants moving to Somerset to retire.

Figure 1 shows how, where the population of working age adults is projected to essentially remain constant, ages 65-84 are forecast to increase by 28% between 2023-2040, and those over the age of 85+ nearly double from 2023-2040.

Figure 2 shows how the forecasted population increase is proportioned between age-band and sex. The greatest change in population is the increase in men and women over the age of 65 between 2023-2030 and 2023-2040, where the under 65 is largely projected to stay the same between 2023-2040.

Somerset’s Ageing Population and the Adult Social Care Sector

In regard to the delivery of adult social care, the forecasted increase of older persons within Somerset will mean that the adult social care service and sector will have to negotiate an increasingly demanding market and landscape.

Figure 3, in only taking baseline estimates of Somerset’s adult population (before taking into account the dynamic changes shown in Figure 2) demonstrates that Somerset Council will have a baseline of 11,000 service users by 2040. It is likely that this figure is an underestimate.

Somerset’s Ageing Population and Unpaid Care

As population forecasts predict the under-65 demographic does not grow alongside the over-65 demographic, an assumption can be made that older-aged adults will have reduced access to unpaid care. Unpaid care is a vital social phenomenon that underpins the adult social care sector; and the burden of unpaid care burden often falls to female, working age adults looking after their elderly relatives (e.g., parents). If access to unpaid care is predicted to decrease in the future, more of Somerset’s ageing population will need to be supported by Adult Social Care services.