Population and population change

Somerset’s Ageing Population

Somerset’s population is ageing and it is forecast to continue to age into the future. Numerous factors can influence an ageing population, for example: young people leave the county to access higher education or employment opportunities, and internal migrants moving to Somerset to retire.

Figure 1 shows how the population of older-aged adults (aged 65+) are forecast to increase by 28% between 2023-2040, and those over the age of 85+ nearly double from 2023-2040.

Figure 1: Population Projections for Older-Aged Adults in Somerset from 2023-2040 (Source Data: POPPI)

Older Aged Adults Who Need Help with Self-Care or Domestic Tasks

The number of adults aged 65+ who require support with at least one selfcare activity, or at least one domestic task is projected to increase by 42.2 % up to 2040 (Figure 2).

Figure 2: POPPI: Projections for Number of Older Aged Adults Who Need Help With One Self-Care Activity or Domestic Task.

Older Adults with Autism Spectrum Conditions

The number of older-aged adults (65+) with Autism Spectrum Conditions is forecast to increase up to 2040 with an 18.5% increase for individuals aged 65-74, (751 to 890) and a 50.7% increase for individuals aged 75+ (697 to 1051) (Figure 3).

Figure 3: POPPI: Projections for Number of Older Aged Adults with Autism Spectrum Conditions (2023 – 2040)

Older Adults with Learning Disabilities

The number of older-aged adults (65+) with Learning Disabilities is forecast to increase up to 2040 with a 20.6% increase for individuals aged 65-74, (1668 to 2012) and a 40% increase for individuals aged 75-84 (1121 to 1569) and a 84% increase for individuals aged 85+ (409 to 750) (Figure 4).

Figure 4: POPPI: Projections for Number of Older Aged Adults with Learning Disabilities (2023-2040)

Working Aged Adults With Personal Care Needs

The number of working aged adults with moderate or significant personal care needs is projected to decrease by 3.56% up to 2040.

 

Figure 1: PANSI Number of Working-Aged Adults with Moderate or Serious Personal Care Disabilities.

Working Age Adults with Autism Spectrum Conditions

The number of working aged adults with Autism Spectrum Conditions is forecast to remain constant up to 2040 (Figure 2).

 

Figure 2 PANSI: Projections for Number of Working Aged Adults with Autism Spectrum Conditions (2023-2040)

Working Age Adults with Learning Disabilities

The number of working aged adults (18-65) with learning disabilities is forecast to remain relatively constant up to 2040 (Figure 3), but with some fluctuations between age bands.

 

Figure 3 PANSI: Projections for Number of Working Aged Adults with Learning Disabilities (2023-2040)

Somerset – Working-Aged Adults with Mental Health Conditions

The number of working-aged adults with mental health conditions is projected to remain constant up to 2040.

 

Figure 4: PANSI: Number of Working-Aged Adults with Mental Health Conditions

Somerset – Working-Aged Adults with Impaired Mobility

The number of working-aged adults with impaired mobility is projected to remain constant up to 2040, with the exception of the 55-64 age group, which is projected to decrease by 9.73%

 

Figure 5: PANSI: Number of Working-Aged Adults with Impaired Mobility.

Data from the 2021 Census data indicates that:
 

• just under 50,000 Somerset residents said they provided unpaid care to a friend or relative (around 1 in 11 people).
• This is approximately 8,000 fewer than the number identified in the 2011 Census
• About 35,000 were under the age of 65.

The decrease in numbers of unpaid carers was also seen nationally, but was not uniform – numbers providing under 20 hours of unpaid care each week decreased significantly, whilst numbers providing more hours of care increased.  This was a pattern seen both locally and nationally.

The ONS (Office for National Statistics) have provided some additional information along with theories about the possible decreases[1]. Potential explanations for changes in the provision of unpaid care could include:

• Coronavirus guidance on reducing travel and limiting visits to people from other households;
• Unpaid carers who previously shared caring responsibilities may have taken on all aspects of unpaid care because of rules on household mixing during the coronavirus pandemic;
• There were a higher number of deaths than expected in the older population at the beginning of 2021 due to coronavirus (COVID-19) and other causes; this could have led to a reduction in the need for unpaid care;
• Changes in the question wording between 2011 and 2021 may have had an impact on the number of people who self-reported as unpaid carers.

Somerset’s Population and Unpaid Care

As current population forecasts suggest that Somerset’s population is ageing, access to unpaid care is likely to become increasingly constrained in the future. This is because the capacity of unpaid caregivers is not expected to grow in line with the rising demand from individuals requiring such care.

Figure 1: Clustered Column Chart Showing Unpaid Care Delivered by Sex and Age Band (Any Unpaid Care Delivered on a Weekly Basis, Source Data Census 2021).

A smaller proportion of working-age adults in Somerset may struggle to meet the care and support needs of the growing number of individuals requiring unpaid care.

Consequently, older adults, who themselves may have or develop care and support needs, could find themselves providing significant amounts of care to close relatives or relationships as they reach later stages of life. It is important to recognize that these older caregiving relationships may, at short notice, necessitate intervention or assessment from Somerset Council.

Figure 2: Projections for Number of Older-Aged Adults Providing Unpaid Care by Age Band (And Unpaid Care Delivered on a Weekly Basis, Source Data Census 2021).