Population and population change

Population in England (2021 Census)

The population of England and Wales in 2021 was 59,597,300, an increase of 6.24% on the 2011 Census (56,097,300).

Population in Somerset (2021 Census)

Somerset’s population at the time of the 2021 Census was 571,600, an increase of 7.8% on the 2011 Census (529,972).

Somerset’s Ageing Population

Somerset’s population is ageing and it is forecast to continue to age into the future. Numerous factors influence this phenomenon, as young people leave the county to find higher education and employment opportunities, and internal migrants move to Somerset to retire.

Figure 1 shows how, where the population of working age adults is projected to essentially remain constant, ages 65-84 are forecast to increase by 28% from 2023-2040 and those over the age of 85+ nearly double from 2023-2040.

Figure 2 shows how these increases are proportioned across age bands. For both groups, with the exception of population changes for men aged 18-24 from 2023-2030, the proportion of the population from 18-65 is less than 10% –or even negative in some cases– whereas the percentage increase for population groups over the age of 65 can increase by as much as 126% (males over the age of 90 from 2023-2040).

Figure 2 demonstrates that towards 2040, the life expectancy gap between males and females could be seen to decrease, as more males progress into significant old age (90+). However, Somerset’s 65+ female population is projected to significantly increase between 2023 – 2040.

Somerset’s Ageing Population and the Adult Social Care Sector

In regard to the delivery of adult social care, the forecasted increase of older persons within Somerset will mean that the adult social care service and sector will have to negotiate an increasingly demanding market and landscape.

Figure 3, in only taking baseline estimates of Somerset’s adult population (before taking into account the dynamic changes shown in Figure 2) demonstrates that Somerset Council will have a baseline of 11,000 service users by 2040. It is likely that this figure is an underestimate.

Somerset’s Ageing Population and Unpaid Care

As the under-65 demographic does not grow proportionally alongside the over-65 demographic, an assumption can be made that older-aged adults will have reduced access to unpaid care. Unpaid care is a vital social phenomenon that underpins the adult social care sector; and the burden of unpaid care burden often falls to female, working age adults looking after their elderly relatives (e.g., parents). If access to unpaid care is predicted to decrease in the future, more of Somerset’s ageing population will need to be supported by Adult Social Care services.