Population and population change

Population in England (2021 Census)
The population of England and Wales in 2021 was 59,597,300, an increase of 6.24% on the 2011 Census (56,097,300).

Population in Somerset (2021 Census)
Somerset’s population at the time of the 2021 Census was 571,600, an increase of 7.8% on the 2011 Census (529,972).

Somerset’s Ageing Population
Somerset’s population is ageing and it is forecast to continue to age into the future. Numerous factors can influence an ageing population, for example: young people leave the county to access higher education or employment opportunities, and internal migrants moving to Somerset to retire.

Figure 1 shows how the population of older-aged adults (aged 65+) are forecast to increase by 28% between 2023-2040, and those over the age of 85+ nearly double from 2023-2040.

Figure 1: Population Projections for Older-Aged Adults in Somerset from 2023-2040 (Source Data: POPPI)

Figure 2 shows how the forecasted population increase is proportioned between age-band and sex. The greatest change in population is the increase in men and women over the age of 65 between 2023-2030 and 2023-2040, where the under 65 is largely projected to stay the same between 2023-2040.

Figure 2: Percentage Change in Population Age Band from 2023-2040 (Source Data: POPPI)

Somerset’s Ageing Population and Unpaid Care
As current population forecasts suggest that Somerset’s population is ageing, access to unpaid care is likely to become increasingly constrained in the future. This is because the capacity of unpaid caregivers is not expected to grow in line with the rising demand from individuals requiring such care.

Figure 3: Clustered Column Chart Showing Unpaid Care Delivered by Sex and Age Band (Any Unpaid Care Delivered on a Weekly Basis, Source Data Census 2021).

A smaller proportion of working-age adults in Somerset may struggle to meet the care and support needs of the growing number of individuals requiring unpaid care.

Consequently, older adults, who themselves may have or develop care and support needs, could find themselves providing significant amounts of care to close relatives or relationships as they reach later stages of life. It is important to recognize that these older caregiving relationships may, at short notice, necessitate intervention or assessment from Somerset Council.

Figure 4: Projections for Number of Older-Aged Adults Providing Unpaid Care by Age Band (And Unpaid Care Delivered on a Weekly Basis, Source Data Census 2021).

Somerset’s Ageing Population and the Adult Social Care Sector
In regard to the delivery of adult social care, the forecasted increase of older persons within Somerset will mean that the adult social care service and sector will have to negotiate an increasingly demanding market and landscape.

Figure 5, in only taking baseline estimates of Somerset’s adult population (before taking into account the dynamic changes shown in Figure 2) demonstrates that Somerset Council will have a baseline of 11,000 adults using services by 2040. It is likely that this figure is an underestimate.

Figure 5: Projections for Number of Adult Social Care Clients in Somerset.